WSRt, critical thinking - a summary of all articles needed in the third block of second year psychology at the uva
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Critical thinking
Article: Oosterveld & Vorst, 2010
Voorspellen van een criteriumwaarde
The test-scores and criterium-values can lay on a (almost) continuous scale, or have a dichotomous character.
Usually, criterium-values are established by judgements of experts.
Commonly, a criterium-value is valuable, it is true for the time being.
The test-score and criterium-value can be established simultaneously or with a short or long period in between.
This has effect on the interpretation of the table
With a long time in between, prediction becomes less stable.
Usually, criterium-values are placed in the vertical axis and test-scores on the horizontal axis.
Not everyone uses this system
Base rate or prevalence: the percentage occurrence of the trait in the population.
With a low prevalence, finding the trait is difficult.
The use of a test must lead to a higher percentage well detected cases (hits) than the prevalence. Otherwise, using the test is useless.
Sensitivity and specificity are direct clues to the predictive value of the test.
PPV and NPV are direct clues to the predictive value of the test.
Reliability of the prediction
The reliability of the prediction: the repeatability of the prediction on a certain point of time.
The reliability of the prediction can be established with cross-validation.
Stability of the prediction
Stability of the prediction: the repeatability of the prediction in the course of time.
Especially important when the predictions are about a period of time.
The stability of prediction can be established by doing a prediction of the criterium-values based on test-scores and changes in the prediction-tabel.
After some time, the prediction is checked by determining the criterium-value.
If all persons are admitted without selection, the stability of the whole prediction-table can be established.
If only the selected are researched, only the stability of the differences in hits and false-positives can be checked.
Utility of a test: the profit of the right number of classifications minus the costs of the number of wrong classifications minus the costs of the testing-procedure.
The utility is maximized if all cases are predicted rightfully.
You can change the cutoff-score
With each adjustment, the indices of values, the optimal use the the test, and the utility changes.
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This is a summary of the articles and reading materials that are needed for the third block in the course WSR-t. This course is given to second year psychology students at the Uva. The course is about thinking critically about scientific research and how such research is
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